Presidential job approval: Trump’s re-election prospects look bleak

By William A. Galston

In modern political history, an incumbent’s job approval has been the single best measure of his reelection prospects. If this holds true in 2020, the current outlook for President Trump is bleak, and his ability to turn around his situation will steadily decline as election day nears.

According to the Gallup Organization, all incumbents with an approval rating of 50% or higher in the final pre-election survey have won reelection. The two incumbents with pre-election ratings below 40% lost badly: Jimmy Carter received just 41.0% of the popular vote in 1980, and George H. W. Bush did

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